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Battery-grade graphite—a key component in electric vehicle batteries—is witnessing a global scramble for dominance. The latest projections show a rapidly evolving landscape of mining and refining capacity, with one country pulling far ahead: China.
China: the unchallenged giant
By far the most striking insight from both mining and battery-grade supply data is China's overwhelming dominance. In both charts, China's supply scales rapidly, peaking at around 7,000 kt by 2036 in battery-grade graphite. Though the pace stabilizes slightly after that, it continues to dwarf every other country.
On the mining front, China reaches over 2,200 kt by 2040, again towering above other nations. This commanding lead underlines China’s tight grip on the upstream and midstream supply chain of one of the most strategic minerals of the clean energy transition.
The rest of the world: playing catch-up
In battery-grade supply, all other regions—including the United States, Germany, Canada, and Sweden—barely rise above the 100–200 kt mark. Even the combined “Rest of World” category struggles to breach 250 kt by 2040. This imbalance poses significant risks for countries relying on imported graphite for EV production.
On the mining side, countries like Madagascar, Mozambique, and Brazil show some growth, but none approach China's scale. Russia and Tanzania remain marginal contributors throughout the period.
A supply chain bottleneck in the making?
The disproportionate control of graphite by a single country mirrors global concerns over critical mineral dependencies. As demand surges in the EV and battery storage industries, limited diversification in supply sources could turn graphite into a strategic vulnerability—particularly for Europe and North America.
What comes next?
With major economies pushing for EV adoption and clean energy independence, these charts reveal a clear call to action: invest in domestic graphite production and processing—or risk falling behind. From refining technology to raw material access, the graphite race is shaping up to be one of the defining industrial battlegrounds of the decade.