According to MyDataJungle data, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is projected to remain the unrivaled king of global cobalt mining through 2040.
The DRC jumps from ≈158 kt in 2023 to a peak of ≈215 kt in 2030, before gradually declining toward ≈135 kt by 2040.
No other country even comes close:
– Indonesia rises from 20 kt to ~50 kt by 2030.
– The rest of the world declines steadily from ~48 kt to the low 30s.
– Russia and Australia remain marginal players.
Takeaway: even with moderate diversification, cobalt mining stays overwhelmingly concentrated in the DRC.
Cobalt Refining: China Holds the Real Power
If Congo dominates extraction, China controls the value chain.
MyDataJungle projections show: China expands from ≈173 kt in 2023 to a peak of ≈235 kt by 2031, remaining above 225 kt through 2040; The “rest of world” segment grows modestly from 20 kt to ~33 kt; Finland, Japan, Indonesia, and Canada all stay below 20 kt, with mixed trajectories.
Translation: even if mining diversifies, refining remains almost entirely in China’s hands — and refining is where strategic leverage lies.
A Strategic Bottleneck With Global Implications
These charts tell a simple story: mining is geographically concentrated; refining is even more concentrated — and controlled by one country.
For industries dependent on cobalt — EV batteries, energy storage, consumer electronics — this creates a structural dependence that Europe, the U.S., and Japan are struggling to offset.
China and Congo are set to shape the future of critical minerals. Everyone else is just trying to keep up.