Nickel powerhouses: How the global supply chain is being redrawn

Indonesia is set to dominate the global nickel market in the coming decades. According to the first chart Nickel – Mining: Total Supply, Indonesia’s extraction volume will nearly double by 2040, soaring from just under 1,800 kt in 2023 to over 3,100 kt by 2040. This remarkable growth cements its role as the undisputed leader in raw nickel supply.

The second chart Nickel – Refining: Total Supply tells a similar story. Indonesia’s refining capacity is projected to rise steeply, overtaking Russia and accounting for the largest share of refined nickel by 2035. This signals a shift in industrial processing from traditional Western powers to Southeast Asia.

Russia: A declining force

Russia’s long-standing influence in both nickel mining and refining is fading. In the extraction chart, the Russian Federation starts above 700 kt in 2023 but sees a slow, steady decline, dropping below 500 kt by 2040. Its refining performance echoes this trend, with output declining by about 20% over the same period.

Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and market shifts appear to be eroding Russia’s competitiveness, both in upstream and downstream operations.

Canada and Australia: Stable but not growing fast enough

Canada holds a solid second place in mining, with a strong upward trajectory. From around 1,800 kt in 2023, its output climbs to over 3,000 kt by 2040. However, in refining, Canada remains a mid-tier player, with minimal gains projected. Australia, by contrast, shows slow but stable growth in both sectors—important, but unlikely to challenge the top-tier dominance of Indonesia.

China and Finland: Refining specialists

While absent from the top six in mining, China and Finland shine in refining. Both countries are expected to maintain stable refining capacities through 2040, playing crucial roles in the midstream segment of the supply chain. Their positions reflect strategic investments in industrial infrastructure rather than natural resource abundance.

Rest of the world: The silent backbone

In both charts, the category "Rest of World" represents a significant but declining share. While this group contributed notably to global supply in 2023, its relative influence diminishes as countries like Indonesia and Canada expand aggressively.

Bottom line: The nickel race has a new map

From these projections, it’s clear: Indonesia is rapidly becoming the Saudi Arabia of nickel, reshaping global supply chains from mine to market. Meanwhile, Russia’s decline and the steady performance of countries like Canada, China, and Finland set the stage for a more polarized and strategic global competition over critical resources.

As demand for clean energy surges, nations are no longer just mining minerals—they’re vying for industrial and geopolitical influence in the era of electrification.