Cobalt is one of the key critical minerals for the energy transition, used in electric vehicle batteries, smartphones, and high-performance electronics. Data published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveal very different dynamics between those who mine and those who refine this strategic metal.
Mining: The Weight of the Democratic Republic of Congo
In 2023, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) supplied 157 kt of cobalt, accounting for roughly 70% of global production. This figure will remain dominant through 2030 (215 kt) and still significant in 2040 (135 kt), although declining. In contrast, countries like Russia (8 kt) and Australia (8 to 5 kt) will play a marginal role, as will Indonesia and the “rest of the world.”
Refining: China at the Center
In 2023, China refined 172 kt of cobalt, with projections rising to 231 kt by 2030 and 228 kt by 2040. That equals nearly 50% of forecasted global capacity. Other countries such as Canada, Finland, Indonesia, Japan, and the “rest of the world” remain far behind, ranging between 4 and 33 kt.
An Unbalanced World
The comparison between mining and refining shows a crucial point: those who control cobalt processing control the value chain. DRC dominates the mines, but China handles the transformation—with profound geopolitical and industrial implications.
Conclusion
Cobalt is set to be one of the key raw materials of the 21st century. Its extraction remains African, but its refining is Asian. This imbalance calls for diversified supply chains and stronger strategic autonomy, especially for Europe and the United States.
